Edexcel International GCSE Maths A (4MA1) · Statistics & Probability
Mini-Lesson
Statistics & Probability
This mini-lesson covers the whole of the Edexcel 4MA1 Statistics & Probability content: representing data, averages, histograms, cumulative frequency & box plots, scatter graphs, and every probability rule — from the probability scale to tree diagrams, Venn and conditional probability.
Work through each screen, answer the questions (some wordy, some calculations) and collect ⭐ stars. Higher-tier-only ideas are flagged. Press Start when you're ready.
Representing data
Charts & frequency tables
Discrete data can be shown in several ways. Edexcel expects you to read and draw each of these:
Pictograms — a symbol stands for a number; watch the key (e.g. ⬤ = 4 people).
Bar charts — bar height shows frequency; leave gaps between bars.
Pie charts — the whole circle (360°) is the total; each slice angle = (frequency ÷ total) × 360°.
Frequency tables — a tally of how many times each value occurs.
Pie chart tip: the angles must add to 360°. To read one back, a slice of angle A represents (A ÷ 360) × total.
Quick check
Reading a pie chart
?60 students chose a favourite sport. In a pie chart, football has a slice of angle 120°. How many students chose football?
Averages & range
Mean, median, mode & range
Four values summarise a list of numbers:
mean = sum of values ÷ number of valuesthe "balancing point" — uses every value
Median — the middle value when the data is put in order. For n values it is in position (n+1)÷2. With two middles, average them.
Mode — the most common value (there can be none, one, or several).
Range — largest − smallest. It measures spread, not average.
Misconception — mean vs median: the mean is dragged towards extreme values (outliers). If a dataset has one huge value, the median is usually the fairer "typical" value.
Calculate
Your turn — the median
1Find the median of: 7, 3, 9, 4, 3, 12, 8. (First put them in order, then take the middle value.)
Hint: ordered — 3, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 12. There are 7 values, so the 4th is the middle.
Calculate
Your turn — the mean
2Six test scores are: 5, 8, 6, 9, 10, 10. Calculate the mean.
Hint: sum = 5+8+6+9+10+10 = 48, then divide by 6.
Mean from a frequency table
Averages from tables
When data is in a frequency table, don't add the values once each — weight each value by how often it occurs.
Number of goals scored in 20 matches
Goals (x)
0
1
2
3
Frequency (f)
5
8
4
3
mean = Σfx ÷ ΣfΣfx = sum of (value × frequency); Σf = total frequency
Worked example
Σfx = (0×5)+(1×8)+(2×4)+(3×3) = 0+8+8+9 = 25
Σf = 5+8+4+3 = 20
mean = 25 ÷ 20 = 1.25 goals
Watch out: the total number of matches is Σf = 20, not the number of rows. Divide by the total frequency.
Calculate
Your turn — mean from a table
3Pupils recorded how many pets they own. Find the mean number of pets.
A scatter graph shows whether two quantities are related:
Positive correlation — one goes up as the other goes up (points rise ↗).
Negative correlation — one goes down as the other goes up (points fall ↘).
No correlation — points are scattered with no pattern.
Positive correlation. The line of best fit passes through the middle of the points (roughly equal numbers each side) and is used to predict values.
Warning: correlation does not prove one thing causes the other, and predictions outside the data range (extrapolation) are unreliable.
Quick check
Name the correlation
?On a scatter graph, as the number of hours of exercise per week increases, a person's resting heart rate tends to decrease. What type of correlation is this?
Higher only
Histograms & frequency density
When class widths are unequal, a normal bar chart misleads the eye. A histogram fixes this: it plots frequency density so that area = frequency.
frequency density = frequency ÷ class widthbar area (fd × width) gives back the frequency
Unequal widths: the third bar (width 20, fd 3) still represents 3 × 20 = 60 in frequency, even though it is short.
Misconception: in a histogram the height is NOT the frequency — you must use frequency density, and the area of each bar gives the frequency.
Calculate · Higher
Your turn — frequency density
5A histogram class is 20 ≤ x < 30 and contains a frequency of 45. Calculate the frequency density for this bar.
Hint: class width = 30 − 20 = 10; frequency density = 45 ÷ 10.
Higher only
Cumulative frequency & box plots
Cumulative frequency is a running total. Plot it against the upper class boundary to get an S-shaped curve, then read off key measures:
Median — read across from ½ of the total (n ÷ 2).
Lower quartile (LQ) — at ¼ (n ÷ 4); upper quartile (UQ) — at ¾ (3n ÷ 4).
Interquartile range (IQR) = UQ − LQ — a measure of spread that ignores outliers.
The curve gives median & quartiles; the box plot below shows the same five-number summary (min, LQ, median, UQ, max).Calculate · Higher
Your turn — interquartile range
6From a cumulative frequency curve, the lower quartile is 24 and the upper quartile is 41. Calculate the interquartile range.
Hint: IQR = UQ − LQ = 41 − 24.
Match it
Which measure fits?
Tap the statistic that best matches each description.
Comparing distributions
Comparing two data sets
To compare data properly, Edexcel wants two things mentioned:
An average — usually the median (or mean) to say which set is generally higher.
A measure of spread — the range or IQR to say which set is more consistent.
Exam phrasing: "Class A had a higher median (so did better on average), and a smaller IQR (so was more consistent)." Always compare in context. A smaller IQR or range means the data is more consistent.
Quick check
Reading the comparison
?Two archers have the same median score. Archer P has an IQR of 3; Archer Q has an IQR of 9. Which statement is correct?
Probability scale
Measuring chance
Every probability lies on a scale from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain), written as a fraction, decimal or percentage.
P(event) = favourable outcomes ÷ total equally-likely outcomese.g. P(rolling a 4 on a fair die) = 1 ÷ 6
P(not A) = 1 − P(A)the outcomes not in A are everything else
Quick check
P(not A)
?The probability that it rains tomorrow is 0.3. What is the probability that it does not rain?
Mutually exclusive events
Sample space & the sum rule
The sample space is the list of all possible outcomes (e.g. for two dice, a 6×6 grid of 36 outcomes).
Mutually exclusive events cannot happen at the same time (like scoring a 2 or a 5 on one die). For these you add:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)only when A and B are mutually exclusive
Key fact: the probabilities of a full set of mutually exclusive outcomes must sum to 1. So if a spinner lands on red, blue or green with P(red)=0.5, P(blue)=0.2, then P(green) = 1 − 0.5 − 0.2 = 0.3.
Sort it
Add or multiply?
Decide whether each pair of events is mutually exclusive (you'd add) or independent (you'd multiply). Tap an event, then tap the correct box.
➕ Mutually exclusive (add)
✖️ Independent (multiply)
Independent events
The AND (multiply) rule
Two events are independent if one happening does not change the other (like two separate coin flips). For independent events you multiply:
P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)only valid when A and B are independent
Worked example
A fair coin and a fair die are used together.
P(heads AND a six) = P(heads) × P(six) = ½ × ⅙ = 1/12
Misconception: P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B) is only true when the events are independent. If picking without replacement, the second probability changes — that is conditional probability.
Higher only
Conditional probability
Conditional probability is the chance of B given that A has already happened, written P(B | A). It appears with picking without replacement and on tree diagrams.
Worked example — without replacement
A bag has 5 red and 3 blue counters. Two are taken without replacement.
P(1st red) = 5/8. Now 7 counters remain (4 red).
P(2nd red | 1st red) = 4/7
P(both red) = 5/8 × 4/7 = 20/56 = 5/14
After removing one counter without replacement, only 7 counters are left, so the second draw is out of 7, not 8. The probabilities on the second set of branches depend on the first — that is exactly what "conditional" means.
Tree diagrams
Tree diagrams
A tree diagram organises two (or more) stages. Rules: multiply along branches (AND), add between separate paths (OR). Each set of branches from a point must sum to 1.
Two coin flips. P(HH) = ½ × ½ = ¼. The four end probabilities add to 1.Venn diagrams
Venn diagram probability
A Venn diagram sorts outcomes into sets. The overlap is A and B (∩); the whole of both circles is A or B (∪).
The overlap (6) plays both. P(F and T) = 6/30 = 1/5. The 4 outside play neither.
P(not A) = 1 − P(A) · mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1
Mutually exclusive: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Independent: P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)
Expected frequency = P(event) × trials
You've covered the whole of 4MA1 Statistics & Probability — representing data, averages, histograms, cumulative frequency & box plots, scatter graphs, and all the probability rules. Press Finish to see your score.
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