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Edexcel International GCSE Maths A (4MA1) · Statistics & Probability
Mini-Lesson

Statistics & Probability

This mini-lesson covers the whole of the Edexcel 4MA1 Statistics & Probability content: representing data, averages, histograms, cumulative frequency & box plots, scatter graphs, and every probability rule — from the probability scale to tree diagrams, Venn and conditional probability.

STATISTICS describe data PROBABILITY measure chance two halves of the topic

Work through each screen, answer the questions (some wordy, some calculations) and collect ⭐ stars. Higher-tier-only ideas are flagged. Press Start when you're ready.

Representing data

Charts & frequency tables

Discrete data can be shown in several ways. Edexcel expects you to read and draw each of these:

  • Pictograms — a symbol stands for a number; watch the key (e.g. ⬤ = 4 people).
  • Bar charts — bar height shows frequency; leave gaps between bars.
  • Pie charts — the whole circle (360°) is the total; each slice angle = (frequency ÷ total) × 360°.
  • Frequency tables — a tally of how many times each value occurs.

Pie chart tip: the angles must add to 360°. To read one back, a slice of angle A represents (A ÷ 360) × total.

Quick check

Reading a pie chart

?60 students chose a favourite sport. In a pie chart, football has a slice of angle 120°. How many students chose football?
Averages & range

Mean, median, mode & range

Four values summarise a list of numbers:

mean = sum of values ÷ number of valuesthe "balancing point" — uses every value
  • Median — the middle value when the data is put in order. For n values it is in position (n+1)÷2. With two middles, average them.
  • Mode — the most common value (there can be none, one, or several).
  • Range — largest − smallest. It measures spread, not average.

Misconception — mean vs median: the mean is dragged towards extreme values (outliers). If a dataset has one huge value, the median is usually the fairer "typical" value.

Calculate

Your turn — the median

1Find the median of: 7, 3, 9, 4, 3, 12, 8.
(First put them in order, then take the middle value.)
Hint: ordered — 3, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 12. There are 7 values, so the 4th is the middle.
Calculate

Your turn — the mean

2Six test scores are: 5, 8, 6, 9, 10, 10. Calculate the mean.
Hint: sum = 5+8+6+9+10+10 = 48, then divide by 6.
Mean from a frequency table

Averages from tables

When data is in a frequency table, don't add the values once each — weight each value by how often it occurs.

Number of goals scored in 20 matches
Goals (x)0123
Frequency (f)5843
mean = Σfx ÷ ΣfΣfx = sum of (value × frequency); Σf = total frequency
Worked example

Σfx = (0×5)+(1×8)+(2×4)+(3×3) = 0+8+8+9 = 25

Σf = 5+8+4+3 = 20

mean = 25 ÷ 20 = 1.25 goals

Watch out: the total number of matches is Σf = 20, not the number of rows. Divide by the total frequency.

Calculate

Your turn — mean from a table

3Pupils recorded how many pets they own. Find the mean number of pets.
Pets (x)0123
Frequency (f)4673
pets
Hint: Σfx = 0+6+14+9 = 29; Σf = 4+6+7+3 = 20; mean = 29 ÷ 20.
Grouped data

Estimated mean of grouped data

With grouped (continuous) data we don't know exact values, so we use the midpoint of each class as a best estimate. The mean is then only an estimate.

Times to run 100 m
Time t (s)MidpointFreq ff × mid
10 ≤ t < 1412336
14 ≤ t < 18167112
18 ≤ t < 222010200
Worked example

Σf = 3+7+10 = 20

Σ(f × midpoint) = 36+112+200 = 348

estimated mean = 348 ÷ 20 = 17.4 s

Modal class = the class with the highest frequency (here 18 ≤ t < 22). The class containing the median is found from the running total of frequencies.

Calculate

Your turn — estimated mean

4Estimate the mean mass using the midpoint of each class.
Mass m (kg)MidpointFreq f
0 ≤ m < 1052
10 ≤ m < 20155
20 ≤ m < 30253
kg
Hint: Σ(f×mid) = (5×2)+(15×5)+(25×3) = 10+75+75 = 160; Σf = 10; mean = 160 ÷ 10.
Scatter graphs

Correlation & line of best fit

A scatter graph shows whether two quantities are related:

  • Positive correlation — one goes up as the other goes up (points rise ↗).
  • Negative correlation — one goes down as the other goes up (points fall ↘).
  • No correlation — points are scattered with no pattern.
Score Hours revised line of best fit
Positive correlation. The line of best fit passes through the middle of the points (roughly equal numbers each side) and is used to predict values.

Warning: correlation does not prove one thing causes the other, and predictions outside the data range (extrapolation) are unreliable.

Quick check

Name the correlation

?On a scatter graph, as the number of hours of exercise per week increases, a person's resting heart rate tends to decrease. What type of correlation is this?
Higher only

Histograms & frequency density

When class widths are unequal, a normal bar chart misleads the eye. A histogram fixes this: it plots frequency density so that area = frequency.

frequency density = frequency ÷ class widthbar area (fd × width) gives back the frequency
Freq density 010204060 tall + narrow wide + short
Unequal widths: the third bar (width 20, fd 3) still represents 3 × 20 = 60 in frequency, even though it is short.

Misconception: in a histogram the height is NOT the frequency — you must use frequency density, and the area of each bar gives the frequency.

Calculate · Higher

Your turn — frequency density

5A histogram class is 20 ≤ x < 30 and contains a frequency of 45. Calculate the frequency density for this bar.
Hint: class width = 30 − 20 = 10; frequency density = 45 ÷ 10.
Higher only

Cumulative frequency & box plots

Cumulative frequency is a running total. Plot it against the upper class boundary to get an S-shaped curve, then read off key measures:

  • Median — read across from ½ of the total (n ÷ 2).
  • Lower quartile (LQ) — at ¼ (n ÷ 4); upper quartile (UQ) — at ¾ (3n ÷ 4).
  • Interquartile range (IQR) = UQ − LQ — a measure of spread that ignores outliers.
Cum. freq median from n÷2 minLQmedianUQmax
The curve gives median & quartiles; the box plot below shows the same five-number summary (min, LQ, median, UQ, max).
Calculate · Higher

Your turn — interquartile range

6From a cumulative frequency curve, the lower quartile is 24 and the upper quartile is 41. Calculate the interquartile range.
Hint: IQR = UQ − LQ = 41 − 24.
Match it

Which measure fits?

Tap the statistic that best matches each description.

Comparing distributions

Comparing two data sets

To compare data properly, Edexcel wants two things mentioned:

  • An average — usually the median (or mean) to say which set is generally higher.
  • A measure of spread — the range or IQR to say which set is more consistent.

Exam phrasing: "Class A had a higher median (so did better on average), and a smaller IQR (so was more consistent)." Always compare in context. A smaller IQR or range means the data is more consistent.

Quick check

Reading the comparison

?Two archers have the same median score. Archer P has an IQR of 3; Archer Q has an IQR of 9. Which statement is correct?
Probability scale

Measuring chance

Every probability lies on a scale from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain), written as a fraction, decimal or percentage.

P(event) = favourable outcomes ÷ total equally-likely outcomese.g. P(rolling a 4 on a fair die) = 1 ÷ 6
00.51 impossible even chance certain
P(not A) = 1 − P(A)the outcomes not in A are everything else
Quick check

P(not A)

?The probability that it rains tomorrow is 0.3. What is the probability that it does not rain?
Mutually exclusive events

Sample space & the sum rule

The sample space is the list of all possible outcomes (e.g. for two dice, a 6×6 grid of 36 outcomes).

Mutually exclusive events cannot happen at the same time (like scoring a 2 or a 5 on one die). For these you add:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)only when A and B are mutually exclusive

Key fact: the probabilities of a full set of mutually exclusive outcomes must sum to 1. So if a spinner lands on red, blue or green with P(red)=0.5, P(blue)=0.2, then P(green) = 1 − 0.5 − 0.2 = 0.3.

Sort it

Add or multiply?

Decide whether each pair of events is mutually exclusive (you'd add) or independent (you'd multiply). Tap an event, then tap the correct box.

➕ Mutually exclusive (add)

✖️ Independent (multiply)

Independent events

The AND (multiply) rule

Two events are independent if one happening does not change the other (like two separate coin flips). For independent events you multiply:

P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)only valid when A and B are independent
Worked example

A fair coin and a fair die are used together.

P(heads AND a six) = P(heads) × P(six) = ½ × ⅙ = 1/12

Misconception: P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B) is only true when the events are independent. If picking without replacement, the second probability changes — that is conditional probability.

Higher only

Conditional probability

Conditional probability is the chance of B given that A has already happened, written P(B | A). It appears with picking without replacement and on tree diagrams.

Worked example — without replacement

A bag has 5 red and 3 blue counters. Two are taken without replacement.

P(1st red) = 5/8. Now 7 counters remain (4 red).

P(2nd red | 1st red) = 4/7

P(both red) = 5/8 × 4/7 = 20/56 = 5/14

After removing one counter without replacement, only 7 counters are left, so the second draw is out of 7, not 8. The probabilities on the second set of branches depend on the first — that is exactly what "conditional" means.

Tree diagrams

Tree diagrams

A tree diagram organises two (or more) stages. Rules: multiply along branches (AND), add between separate paths (OR). Each set of branches from a point must sum to 1.

½ ½ H T ½ ½ ½ ½ HH → ¼HT → ¼ TH → ¼TT → ¼
Two coin flips. P(HH) = ½ × ½ = ¼. The four end probabilities add to 1.
Venn diagrams

Venn diagram probability

A Venn diagram sorts outcomes into sets. The overlap is A and B (∩); the whole of both circles is A or B (∪).

ξ = 30 students Football (F) Tennis (T) 12 6 8 4
The overlap (6) plays both. P(F and T) = 6/30 = 1/5. The 4 outside play neither.

Check: 12 + 6 + 8 + 4 = 30 = the whole set (ξ). P(plays football, F) = (12+6)/30 = 18/30 = 3/5.

Experimental probability

Relative & expected frequency

Relative frequency (experimental probability) estimates probability from actual trials:

relative frequency = successes ÷ total trialsthe more trials, the closer it gets to the true probability

Expected frequency predicts how many times an event should happen:

expected frequency = P(event) × number of trialse.g. P(six) × 300 rolls
Worked example

A biased die shows a six with probability 0.2. In 300 rolls:

expected number of sixes = 0.2 × 300 = 60

Match it

Term ↔ definition

Tap a term on the left, then its matching definition on the right.

Recap

The rules to know

Mean: Σfx ÷ Σf  ·  Median: middle of ordered data  ·  Range: max − min

Histogram (H): frequency density = frequency ÷ class width; area = frequency

IQR (H): UQ − LQ (from cumulative frequency curve / box plot)

P(not A) = 1 − P(A)  ·  mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1

Mutually exclusive: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Independent: P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)

Expected frequency = P(event) × trials

You've covered the whole of 4MA1 Statistics & Probability — representing data, averages, histograms, cumulative frequency & box plots, scatter graphs, and all the probability rules. Press Finish to see your score.

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