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AQA GCSE Maths (8300) · Probability
Mini-Lesson

Probability

This mini-lesson covers the Probability strand of AQA GCSE Maths (8300): the probability scale, sample space, tree diagrams, Venn diagrams, relative frequency, mutually exclusive & independent events, and conditional probability.

0 ≤ P(event) ≤ 1P(not A) = 1 − P(A)  ·  probabilities of all outcomes sum to 1

These games test recall of facts, formulae and methods — not full multi-step working. Answer the questions as you go and collect ⭐ stars. Press Start when you're ready.

Probability scale

The probability scale

All probabilities lie between 0 (impossible) and 1 (certain). They can be written as fractions, decimals or percentages.

0 ½ 1 impossible even chance certain
An "even chance" is exactly ½ = 0.5 = 50%.

Key rule: P(not A) = 1 − P(A). If the chance of rain is 0.3, the chance of no rain is 0.7.

Calculate

Your turn — the complement

1The probability that a train is late is 0.15. Work out the probability that it is not late. Give a decimal.
Hint: P(not late) = 1 − 0.15.
Equally likely outcomes

Probability of a single event

When outcomes are equally likely:

P(event) = (favourable outcomes) ÷ (total outcomes)e.g. one die: P(6) = 1 ÷ 6
Worked example

A bag has 3 red and 5 blue counters. P(red)?

Favourable = 3, total = 3 + 5 = 8.

P(red) = 3/8

Total matters: the denominator is every outcome (3 + 5 = 8), not just the "other" colour.

Calculate

Your turn — expected outcomes

2A fair die is rolled 300 times. How many times would you expect to roll a 5?
Hint: P(5) = 1/6, so expected = 300 × 1/6.
Mutually exclusive events

Mutually exclusive events (the OR rule)

Events are mutually exclusive if they can't both happen at once. For these, you add the probabilities:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)only when A and B cannot both occur
Worked example

A spinner: P(red) = 0.2, P(green) = 0.5. P(red or green)?

They can't both happen, so add: 0.2 + 0.5 = 0.7

Sum to 1: if red, green and blue are the only outcomes, P(blue) = 1 − 0.2 − 0.5 = 0.3.

Calculate

Your turn — OR rule

3A bag has red, blue and yellow counters. P(red) = 0.4 and P(blue) = 0.35. Work out P(yellow). Give a decimal.
Hint: all probabilities sum to 1, so 1 − 0.4 − 0.35.
Independent events

Independent events (the AND rule)

Events are independent if one has no effect on the other. For these, you multiply the probabilities:

P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)for independent events
Worked example

Two fair coins. P(heads and heads)?

Each P(head) = ½, and the coins are independent.

½ × ½ = ¼

AND × · OR +: multiply along the branches of a tree diagram (AND), then add the routes that give the outcome you want (OR).

Calculate

Your turn — AND rule

4P(A) = 0.5 and P(B) = 0.2, and A and B are independent. Work out P(A and B). Give a decimal.
Hint: for independent events, multiply: 0.5 × 0.2.
Tree diagrams

Tree diagrams

A tree diagram shows all outcomes of two or more events. Multiply along each set of branches; the pairs at each fork sum to 1.

0.7 0.3 Win Lose 0.7 0.3 0.7×0.7 = 0.49
P(Win then Win) = 0.7 × 0.7 = 0.49 (multiply along the branches).

Two ways to get "one win": Win-Lose or Lose-Win. Work out each route, then add them.

Calculate

Your turn — tree diagram

5A game is won with probability 0.6 each time. It is played twice. Work out P(win both games). Give a decimal.
Hint: multiply along the "win then win" branches: 0.6 × 0.6.
Relative frequency

Relative frequency (experimental probability)

When you can't count equally likely outcomes, estimate the probability from experiment:

relative frequency = (times it happened) ÷ (total trials)the more trials, the closer to the true probability
Worked example

A drawing pin lands "point up" 36 times out of 60 drops.

Relative frequency = 36 ÷ 60 = 0.6

Estimating a count: to predict results in N new trials, multiply the relative frequency by N.

Calculate

Your turn — relative frequency

6A spinner lands on red 24 times in 80 spins. Work out the relative frequency of red. Give a decimal.
Hint: 24 ÷ 80.
Quick check

Add or multiply?

?You want P(A and B) for two independent events. What do you do with the probabilities?
Quick check

Reading a Venn diagram

?In a Venn diagram, the overlap of sets A and B represents which outcomes?
Match game

Match: event ⇄ probability

Tap a fair-dice event on the left, then its probability on the right (a standard six-sided die).

Sort it

Add or multiply?

Sort each phrase into the rule it needs. "OR" mutually exclusive events are added; "AND" independent events are multiplied. Tap a phrase, then the box.

➕ Add (OR / exclusive)

✖️ Multiply (AND / independent)

Recap

The whole Probability strand

Scale: 0 ≤ P ≤ 1; P(not A) = 1 − P(A); all outcomes sum to 1.

Single event: favourable ÷ total outcomes.

Mutually exclusive (OR): add — P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B).

Independent (AND): multiply — P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B).

Tree diagrams: multiply along branches, add the routes.

Relative frequency: times happened ÷ total trials.

Venn diagrams: overlap = in both; conditional probability narrows the sample space.

You've covered every Probability sub-topic in AQA 8300. Press Finish to see your score.

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