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IB Diploma Geography SL and HL · Core Unit 1: Changing population
Mini-LessonSL and HL

Changing population

7 missions. Guess, learn, then check. Your place is saved.

  1. Mission 1Why do more than 9 in 10 people in China live on one side of a single line?
  2. Mission 2Is China a rich country or a poor one?
  3. Mission 3At today's rate, Niger's population would double in about 21 years. Japan's is shrinking. Why?
  4. Mission 4Dhaka grew from 3 million people in 1980 to over 18 million by 2017. Who gains and who loses when a city grows that fast?
  5. Mission 5Within a year of August 2017, nearly 725,000 people had fled from Myanmar into Bangladesh. Why do so many people flee at once, and what happens where they arrive?
  6. Mission 6From 1980 China limited most couples to one child. By 2021 it allowed three. Why the U-turn, and can governments change how many children people have?
  7. Mission 7Can a falling birth rate make a country richer?
Mission 1

Mission 1: Why do more than 9 in 10 people in China live on one side of a single line?

Make a guess: Why do more than 9 in 10 people in China live on one side of a single line?

Mission 1

Distribution and density

  • Population distribution: how people are spread across an area.
  • Population density = population ÷ area (people per km²).
  • Distribution describes where; density describes how many per km².
Mission 1

An uneven world

World population by region, 2024Share of world population, 2024 (%)Asia58.9%Africa18.6%Europe9.1%Latin America andthe Caribbean8.1%Northern America4.7%Oceania0.6%0204060Source: UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024.Shares of the 1 July 2024 population; 2024 is amedium-variant projection.
  • People are spread very unevenly. Asia alone holds about 59% of the world's people (2024).
  • About 39% of people live within 100 km of a coast (2010).
  • Hot and cold deserts, high mountains and dense rainforest are almost empty.
Quick check
?Two countries have exactly the same population density. What can you conclude?
Mission 1

Physical factors

Factors affecting population distributionPhysical factorsClimateAttracts: warmth and reliable rainfallRepels: extreme heat, cold or droughtReliefAttracts: flat lowlandsRepels: steep, high landWaterAttracts: rivers, lakes and groundwaterSoilsAttracts: fertile river (alluvial) and volcanic soilsResourcesAttracts: minerals and energy, even in harshplacesHuman factorsEconomicAttracts: jobs, industry, ports and trade routesPoliticalAttracts: capital cities, planned new townsRestricts: controls on migrationHistoricalKeeps people: long-settled river valleys; citiesgrow where cities already areTechnologyirrigation, air conditioning and desalination letpeople live where physical conditions are harsh
  • Climate: warmth and reliable rainfall support farming; extreme heat, cold or drought repel settlement.
  • Relief: flat lowlands are easy to farm and build on; steep, high land is not.
  • Water: rivers, lakes and groundwater for drinking and irrigation.
  • Soils: fertile river (alluvial) and volcanic soils support dense farming populations.
  • Resources: minerals and energy can draw people even to harsh places.
Mission 1

Human factors

  • Economic: jobs, industry, ports and trade routes.
  • Political: capital cities, planned new towns, controls on migration.
  • Historical: long-settled river valleys keep their people; cities grow where cities already are.
  • Technology: irrigation, air conditioning and desalination let people live where physical conditions are harsh.
Quick check
?Which of these is a human factor attracting people to an area?
Mission 1

Scale and relative importance

  • Patterns change with scale: a thinly populated country can contain some of the densest cities on Earth.
  • At the global scale, physical factors set broad limits.
  • Within those limits, human factors increasingly decide exactly where people live.
  • Exam move: the guide asks for "the relative importance of different influences". Argue which factor matters most at which scale, and support it with a located example.
Mission 1

Example 1: China's Hu Line

China and the Hu LineHeiheTengchongabout 94% ofpeople · about43% of landabout 6% ofpeople · about57% of landHu Line1,000 km2010 census. The line is straight from Heihe toTengchong; north is up.Sources: Chen et al. (2016), 2010 census; Hu Huanyong(1935). Map: Natural Earth.
  • In 1935 the geographer Hu Huanyong drew a line from Aihui (now Heihe) in the north-east to Tengchong in the south-west.
  • With 1933 data, 96% of China's people lived south-east of it.
  • 2010 census: about 94% of people on about 43% of the land. 2020 census: 93.5%, using a prefecture-level version of the line.
  • The split has barely changed in about 90 years.
Mission 1

Why the line holds

  • South-east: monsoon rainfall, lowland plains and great river valleys (Yangtze, Pearl) with fertile soils.
  • North-west: the Tibetan Plateau, deserts and steppe, which are high, cold or dry.
  • The line roughly follows the 400 mm annual rainfall line, which separates the wetter, mainly farming lands of the east from the drier, mainly pastoral lands of the west.
  • Human factors then reinforced the pattern: cities, industry and ports grew in the south-east, and migrants followed the jobs.
Quick check
?Which statement best explains why the Hu Line split has barely moved since the 1930s?
Mission 1

Example 2: Egypt

Egypt's ribbon of settlementCairoAswanDesertDesertabout 95% of people· about 5–6% of landNile ValleyMediterranean SeaDeltaLake Nasser200 kmShaded strip widths are exaggerated so they can be seen.Sources: Egypt NDC (2022) for the 95%; CAPMAS (2016)for the 5–6% of land. Map: Natural Earth.
  • About 95% of Egyptians live in the Nile Valley and Delta.
  • Only about 5–6% of Egypt's land is used by its population; the rest is desert.
  • One physical factor dominates: water. The Nile supplies water for farming and cities through a desert.
  • The result is a narrow ribbon and delta of very dense settlement, with near-empty land on either side.
Calculate

Egypt had 116.5 million people in 2024 and an area of 1,001,450 km².

aCalculate Egypt's national population density, to the nearest whole number.
bAbout 95% of the people live on about 5.5% of the land. Calculate the density in that area, to 3 significant figures.
Quick check
?Which statement best contrasts the two examples?
Mission check

?Why do more than 9 in 10 people in China live south-east of the Hu Line?
Mission 2

Mission 2: Is China a rich country or a poor one?

Make a guess: Is China a rich country or a poor one?

Mission 2

Classifying countries by income

World Bank income groupsNigerBangladeshChinaJapanGNI per capita, Atlas method (US$)Low income$1,175 or lessLower-middleincome$1,176–4,635Upper-middleincome$4,636–14,375High incomemore than$14,375Not classified / no dataRobinson projection. 2025 GNI per capita; the FY27groups apply from 1 July 2026.Source: World Bank, Country and lending groups, FY2027(published 1 July 2026). Map: Natural Earth.
  • The World Bank groups countries by GNI per capita (Atlas method, US$).
  • For July 2026 to June 2027 (2025 data):
    • Low income: $1,175 or less
    • Lower-middle income: $1,176–4,635
    • Upper-middle income: $4,636–14,375
    • High income: more than $14,375
  • 218 economies: 25 low, 47 lower-middle, 59 upper-middle and 87 high income.
  • Pattern: most low-income economies are in sub-Saharan Africa; high-income economies cluster in Europe, North America, the Gulf, East Asia and Oceania.
Mission 2

Middle income and emerging economies

  • Middle-income countries span a huge range, from just above $1,175 to $14,375 per person.
  • Emerging economies are middle-income countries with rapid growth, industrialisation and fast-rising trade, such as China, India and Brazil.
  • Thresholds are updated every July. In 2026 Jordan, Micronesia, the Philippines, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam moved up to upper-middle income.
Mission 2

Beyond income: the HDI

The HDI's three dimensionsA long andhealthy lifeKnowledgeA decentstandard oflivingLife expectancyat birthExpected andmean years ofschoolingGNI per capita(2021 PPP $)One HDI valuefor each countrySource: UNDP, Human Development Report 2025,Technical notes.
  • The Human Development Index combines three dimensions:
    • a long and healthy life (life expectancy at birth)
    • knowledge (expected and mean years of schooling)
    • a decent standard of living (GNI per capita, PPP $).
  • Strength: broader than income alone.
  • Limitations: a national average hides gaps between regions and groups, and it leaves out other things people value.
Quick check
?A country's GNI per capita (Atlas method) is $4,900. Which World Bank group is it in for 2026–27?
Mission 2

Core and periphery

Core and peripheryCorecapital, jobs,powerPeripheryBackwashyoung workersBackwashraw materialsSpread (later)goodsSpread (later)capitalA model, not a map: Myrdal (cumulative causation) andFriedmann (core–periphery).
  • Within a country, development is often uneven. A core region concentrates capital, jobs, infrastructure and power; the periphery has less of each.
  • Young workers, capital and raw materials flow from periphery to core. These backwash effects widen the gap (Myrdal's cumulative causation; Friedmann's core–periphery model).
  • Later, growth may spread outwards (spread effects) as costs rise in the core.
Mission 2

China's core and periphery

Beijing and Gansu, 2025Beijing and Gansu, 2025 (yuan per person)BeijingGansuGDP perpersonabout 239,000about 55,900Disposableincome perperson89,09028,2240100,000200,000yuan per person, 2025Sources: Beijing statistics bureau and Beijing governmentpress conference; Gansu government plan outline andCaijing (2025). GDP per person is published as 23.9 and5.59 万元 (units of 10,000 yuan), so it is shown as "about".Yuan, not US$.
  • China is upper-middle income.
  • But in 2025, GDP per person was about 239,000 yuan in Beijing and about 55,900 yuan in Gansu: over 4 times Gansu's.
  • Disposable income per person: Beijing 89,090 yuan; Gansu 28,224 yuan.
  • The national average hides a rich eastern core and a poorer western interior.
Mission 2

Voluntary internal migration

  • People move by choice, mostly from rural to urban areas and from periphery to core.
  • Push: low farm incomes, few jobs. Pull: wages, services, education.
  • Migration is selective: most migrants are young adults of working age.
Mission 2

China's floating population

China's floating population375.8 million floatingpopulation, 2020124.8 million crossed aprovincial borderEasterncore1,000 kmSchematic arrows: not measured flows or routes.Source: NBS China, Seventh national census communiquéNo. 7 (2021). The floating population excludes moveswithin the same city.
  • Under China's hukou (household registration) system, a person's registered home can differ from where they live and work.
  • China's 2020 census counted a floating population of 375.8 million: people living away from where their household is registered (excluding moves within the same city). Of these, 124.8 million had crossed a provincial border.
  • China's urban share rose from 63.89% (2020) to 67.89% (end of 2025).
Quick check
?For years, mostly young adults have left a rural county for coastal cities. What is the most likely consequence for the county?
Mission 2

Megacity growth

  • A megacity has 10 million people or more.
  • UN, 2025: 33 megacities, up from 8 in 1975. 19 of the 33 are in Asia, and 37 are projected by 2050.
  • Megacities grow by natural increase, by migration from the periphery, and by absorbing surrounding settlements. They often dominate their country (urban primacy).
Mission 2

Definitions change the numbers

  • In 2025 the UN changed how it defines a city: a cluster of touching 1 km² grid cells, each with at least 1,500 people per km², holding at least 50,000 people in total.
  • Before (2018), it used each country's own city boundaries.
  • Under the new method Jakarta has about 42 million people in 2025. The 2018 definitions had projected about 12 million for 2025.
Quick check
?Why are the UN's two estimates of Jakarta's 2025 population so far apart: about 12 million (2018 definitions) and about 42 million (2025 definition)?
Mission check

?Is China a rich country or a poor one?
Mission 3

Mission 3: At today's rate, Niger's population would double in about 21 years. Japan's is shrinking. Why?

Make a guess: At today's rate, Niger's population would double in about 21 years. Japan's is shrinking. Why?

Mission 3

Births, deaths and natural increase

  • Crude birth rate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR): births and deaths per 1,000 people per year.
  • Natural increase rate (NIR), as a % per year = (CBR − CDR) ÷ 10.
  • Dividing by 10 turns "per 1,000" into "per 100".
  • Total population change = natural change + net migration.
Mission 3

Two contrasting countries

Births and deaths, Niger and JapanBirths and deaths per 1,000 people, 2024Crude birth rateCrude death rateNiger41.48.7Japan6.112.4010203040per 1,000 peopleSource: UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024,medium variant. The hatched area shows the gapbetween the two rates.
UN figures for 2024, medium variant
NigerJapan
Population27.0 million123.8 million
Crude birth rate (per 1,000)41.46.1
Crude death rate (per 1,000)8.712.4
Total fertility rate5.941.22
Life expectancy at birth (years)61.484.9
Median age (years)15.449.4

Niger is a low-income country; Japan is high income.

Calculate

Use the birth and death rates on screen 3.2.

aCalculate Niger's natural increase rate (% per year).
bCalculate Japan's natural increase rate (% per year).
Mission 3

Fertility and replacement level

  • Total fertility rate (TFR): the average number of children a woman would have if she survived to age 50 and had children at today's rates for each age.
  • Replacement level is about 2.1 where few children die, and higher where child mortality is high.
  • It is above 2 because some children die before adulthood and slightly more boys than girls are born.
  • World TFR in 2024: 2.25.
Mission 3

Life expectancy

  • Life expectancy at birth: the average number of years a newborn would live if today's death rates at each age stayed the same.
  • World in 2024: 73.3 years. Niger 61.4; Japan 84.9.
  • It is a summary of today's death rates, not a forecast for any one person.
Quick check
?Why is replacement-level fertility above 2.0 rather than exactly 2.0?
Mission 3

The demographic transition model (DTM)

Demographic transition modelRates and population: schematic, not to scaleBirth rateDeath rateTotal populationStage 1Stage 2Stage 3Stage 4Stage 5A model of change over time (stage 5 was added later).Schematic: the lines show direction of change, not data.
  • Stage 1: high, fluctuating birth and death rates; little or no growth.
  • Stage 2: death rates fall (better food supply, clean water, sanitation, vaccination); birth rates stay high, so growth is rapid.
  • Stage 3: birth rates fall (fewer child deaths, urbanisation, girls' education, contraception, the cost of raising children); growth slows.
  • Stage 4: low birth and death rates; slow or no growth.
  • Stage 5 (added later): births below deaths; the population falls.
Mission 3

Using and criticising the DTM

  • Niger fits late stage 2: its death rate is already low, but its birth rate is still very high.
  • Japan fits stage 5: its population peaked in 2008. In 2025 there were 671,270 births and 1,589,533 deaths among Japanese nationals.
Mission 3

Limitations of the DTM

  • It is based on the history of Western Europe and North America.
  • In many lower-income countries, death rates fell quickly with imported medicine and public health, before economic development, so stage 2 growth was faster.
  • It ignores migration, culture and policy (China's birth limits, for example).
  • It does not predict when, or whether, a country moves on. Stage 5 was added later.
Quick check
?A country has a crude birth rate of 35, a crude death rate of 7, and falling child mortality. Which DTM stage fits best?
Mission 3

Population pyramids

Population pyramids: Niger and Japan, 2024MalesFemalesNiger0–420–2440–4460–6480–84100+0551010Japan0–420–2440–4460–6480–84100+0551010% of total population in each 5-year age groupSource: UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024, 1July 2024 (medium-variant projection). Same scale forboth countries.
  • Bars show the % of the population in each 5-year age group, males on the left and females on the right.
  • Niger: a wide base that narrows fast. 46.6% are under 15 and 2.6% are 65 or over.
  • Japan: a narrow base and a bulge at older ages. 11.4% are under 15 and 29.8% are 65 or over.
  • The shape records past births, deaths and migration.
Mission 3

The dependency ratio

  • Dependency ratio = (people aged 0–14 + people aged 65+) ÷ people aged 15–64 × 100.
  • It is the number of dependants for every 100 people of working age.
  • Young and old dependency ratios can be calculated separately.
  • Caution: many 15–19-year-olds are still studying, and many over-65s work.
Calculate

Use the shares on screen 3.11.

aCalculate Japan's dependency ratio.
bCalculate Niger's dependency ratio.
Mission 3

Doubling time

  • For steady percentage growth, doubling time ≈ 70 ÷ growth rate (% per year).
  • This is the "rule of 70". It is an approximation that assumes the rate stays constant.
Calculate
?Using Niger's natural increase rate of 3.27% a year, estimate its doubling time in years.
Mission 3

Population momentum

  • Almost half of Niger's people are under 15. As they reach parenthood, births will stay high even if each woman has fewer children.
  • This population momentum keeps a young population growing for decades after fertility starts to fall.
  • Japan has the opposite momentum: small young cohorts mean fewer future parents.
Mission check

?Why would Niger's population double in about 21 years while Japan's shrinks?
Mission 4

Mission 4: Dhaka grew from 3 million people in 1980 to over 18 million by 2017. Who gains and who loses when a city grows that fast?

Make a guess: Dhaka grew from 3 million people in 1980 to over 18 million by 2017. Who gains and who loses when a city grows that fast?

Mission 4

How big is Dhaka? It depends who is counting

One city, many numbersDhaka's population by source and definition2022 census: the two city corporations10.3 mWorld Bank, 2017over 18 mUN, 2018 method: 201819.6 mUN, 2018 definitions applied to 2025about 25 mUN, 2025 method: 202536.6 m010203040million peopleSources: BBS 2022 census; World Bank (2017); UN DESAWorld Urbanization Prospects 2018 and 2025. Sameplace, different boundaries; the years differ.
  • World Bank: over 18 million in 2017.
  • 2022 census: the two Dhaka city corporations had about 10.3 million people.
  • UN, 2018 method: 19.6 million in 2018.
  • UN, 2025 method: 36.6 million in 2025, second only to Jakarta. With the 2018 definitions, the 2025 figure would be about 25 million.
  • Same place, different boundaries. Always name the source and the definition.
Quick check
?Which statement about these figures is correct?
Mission 4

Why Dhaka grows

Why people move to DhakaDhakaPush: low ruralincomes, hazardsPull: garmentjobsGreater Dhaka: 36% of Bangladesh's urban population.Schematic arrows, not measured flows.Sources: World Bank (2017); IOM Bangladesh (2023).Map: Natural Earth.
  • Natural increase plus rural–urban migration from across Bangladesh.
  • Greater Dhaka holds 36% of Bangladesh's urban population.
  • Push: low rural incomes and hazards. IOM research links some of this migration to climate stress.
Mission 4

The pull of garment jobs

  • Pull: jobs. The ready-made garment (RMG) industry directly employs about 4.2 million people, roughly 60% of them women. RMG made up 80.6% of Bangladesh's exports in 2025–26.
Mission 4

Consequences for individuals: opportunity

  • Work: factory and service jobs bring regular wages. Garment work is a major source of paid work for women.
  • Money home: migrants can send part of their earnings back to rural families.
  • Services: schools, clinics and colleges are closer at hand than in many rural areas.
Mission 4

Consequences for individuals: costs

  • Housing: many migrants live in informal settlements. The 2022 census counted 692,628 slum dwellers in Dhaka district; the World Bank put Dhaka's figure at about 3.5 million in 2017. Definitions differ again.
Mission 4

Consequences for individuals: safety and time

  • Safety: in 2013 the Rana Plaza building collapsed. More than 1,100 people died and more than 2,500 were injured. The ILO's follow-up focuses on safety in the garment industry.
  • Time: average traffic speed fell from 21 km/h to 7 km/h in ten years (World Bank press release, July 2017).
Mission 4

Consequences for society and the environment

  • Economy: congestion wastes about 3.2 million working hours a day.
  • Environment: between 1960 and 2008, Dhaka's water bodies shrank by 32.6% and its low-lying land by 52.6%. These areas acted as natural reservoirs and drainage for storm water.
  • Governance: water, transport, housing and waste services struggle to keep pace with growth.
Quick check
?Which of these is a consequence for society as a whole, rather than for one individual?
Mission 4

Responses

  • Transport: Dhaka's first metro, MRT Line 6, partly opened in December 2022.
  • Pollution: tanneries are being moved out of Hazaribagh, in the city, to a tannery estate at Savar.
  • Exam move: a case study earns more credit when it includes management responses and judges how far they reduce the costs of growth.
Quick check
?Why does the loss of Dhaka's wetlands and lowlands matter?
Mission 4

Exam move: weighing consequences (AO3)

Consequences of megacity growth: who and what typeEconomicSocialEnvironmentalMigrantsRegular wages;money senthomeSchools andclinics closer;informal housingEstablished residentsWater bodiesdown 32.6%and low landdown 52.6%(1960–2008)BusinessesGarmentindustry: 80.6%of exports(2025–26)The stateCongestionwastes about3.2 millionworking hours adayWater,transport,housing andwaste servicesstruggle to keeppaceTanneries movedfrom Hazaribaghto SavarExamples from this mission. Blank cells: you decide.Sources: World Bank (2017); Islam et al. (2010); ILO;BGMEA; BPPPA.
  • Sort the consequences by who is affected (migrants, established residents, businesses, the state), by type (economic, social, environmental) and by time (short or long term).
  • Benefits and costs often fall on different people. The national economy gains export earnings, while workers carry much of the risk.
  • Finish with a judgement: for whom, and under what conditions, does megacity growth bring more benefits than costs?
Quick check
?Which conclusion is best for a "To what extent…" answer about Dhaka's growth?
Mission check

?Who gains and who loses when Dhaka grows so fast?
Mission 5

Mission 5: Within a year of August 2017, nearly 725,000 people had fled from Myanmar into Bangladesh. Why do so many people flee at once, and what happens where they arrive?

Make a guess: Within a year of August 2017, nearly 725,000 people had fled from Myanmar into Bangladesh. Why do so many people flee at once, and what happens where they arrive?

Mission 5

Forced and voluntary migration

  • Forced migration: people are compelled to leave by threats to life or livelihood, such as conflict, persecution or disaster.
  • In practice it is a continuum: many moves mix choice and compulsion.
  • Push factors may be political (conflict, persecution) or environmental, either sudden (floods, storms) or slow (drought, sea-level rise). Development projects such as dams also displace people.
Mission 5

Who is who

Who is who: refugee, asylum-seeker, IDPForced to leave home?NoNot forciblydisplacedYesCrossed an internationalborder?NoInternallydisplaced person(IDP)YesWell-founded fear ofpersecution on one of thefive Convention grounds?YesRefugeeProtection claimlodged, not yetdecidedAsylum-seekerThe five grounds: race, religion, nationality,membership of a particular social group, politicalopinion.Crossing a border because of a disaster does not byitself make someone a Convention refugee.Sources: 1951 Refugee Convention, Art. 1A(2), and 1967Protocol; UN OCHA, Guiding Principles on InternalDisplacement (1998).
  • Refugee: outside their own country, owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion (1951 Convention, extended by the 1967 Protocol).
  • Asylum-seeker: has applied for protection, and the claim is not yet decided.
  • Internally displaced person (IDP): forced to flee home but has not crossed an international border.
  • People displaced by disasters are not refugees under the Convention. "Climate refugee" is a media term, not a legal status.
Quick check
?Families flee rising floodwater to a camp 50 km away, in the same country. What are they?
Mission 5

Global figures

  • End of 2025: 117.8 million people were forcibly displaced, the first fall in a decade.
  • They include 41.6 million refugees, almost 9 million asylum-seekers and 68.7 million people displaced inside their own country by conflict.
Mission 5

Stocks and flows

Stock and flow: displacement as a bathNew displacements during2025 (a flow)62.2 millionincludes repeat moves bythe same peopleIDPs at the end of 2025more than 82.2 million(a stock)Outflow:returns andlocal integrationno figure givenSource: IDMC, Global Report on Internal Displacement2026.
  • IDMC counted more than 82.2 million IDPs at the end of 2025: 68.6 million from conflict (UNHCR rounds this to 68.7) and 13.6 million from disasters.
  • These are stocks: people displaced at one moment. IDMC also counts flows: 62.2 million displacements during 2025, including repeat moves by the same people.
Quick check
?IDMC reports 62.2 million displacements in 2025 and 82.2 million IDPs at the end of 2025. Why are the two numbers different?
Mission 5

Political push: the Rohingya

The Rohingya movementCox's BazarNaf river (border)Rakhine StateMyanmarBangladeshnearly 725,000 bymid-August 2018100 kmArrow is schematic. North is up.Sources: UN Human Rights Council fact-finding mission(2018), A/HRC/39/64. Map: Natural Earth.
  • On 25 August 2017 the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) attacked a military base and up to 30 security posts in northern Rakhine State.
  • Myanmar's security forces then began "clearance operations".
  • A UN fact-finding mission found the response "immediate, brutal and grossly disproportionate", and that it "targeted and terrorized the entire Rohingya population".
  • By mid-August 2018, nearly 725,000 Rohingya had fled to Bangladesh.
Mission 5

Root causes and the place left behind

  • The mission found most Rohingya "de facto stateless, arbitrarily deprived of nationality", after decades of increasingly exclusionary citizenship laws.
  • At least 392 villages, 40% of all settlements in northern Rakhine, were partly or totally destroyed.
  • Long-term causes (no citizenship, exclusion) made the community vulnerable; the 2017 operations were the trigger.
  • Bangladesh is not a party to the 1951 Convention and calls the Rohingya "Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals"; UNHCR counts them as refugees.
  • On 30 September 2026, Bangladesh hosted 1,206,528 Rohingya refugees, including people who arrived after renewed violence from 2024.
Mission 5

Consequences for the refugees

  • Refugees: life in camps that depend on aid. The Kutupalong–Balukhali camps sheltered more than 600,000 people in 2021, the world's largest refugee camp at the time; a massive fire swept them in March 2021.
Mission 5

Consequences for the host area

  • Host area (Cox's Bazar):
    • About 4,818 acres of forest reserve were destroyed (Forest Department estimate).
    • Wages for agricultural and other unskilled work were depressed.
    • UNDP estimates that, because of falling wages, headcount poverty rose by 2.73 percentage points in Teknaf and 2.63 in Ukhiya.
  • Not everyone lost. UNDP's full report says low wages help large farmers who hire labourers, price rises can benefit traders, and hotels, restaurants and transport businesses gain from extra demand; it names day labourers as a vulnerable group.
  • Host country: a long-term humanitarian commitment, with no quick return in sight.
Mission 5

Environmental push: Pakistan's floods, 2022 — causes

Pakistan's 2022 floodsBalochistanSindhSindh andBalochistan:rainfall 6× and 7×the monthlyaverage300 kmHow much of Pakistan was under water?one-third under water (government foreword)one-thirdabout 10%, 85,000 km² (UNOSAT via IDMC)about 10%0255075100% of Pakistan's areaRainfall: Pakistan Post-Disaster Needs Assessment(2022): in Sindh and Balochistan, six and seven times theaverage monthly totals. Area under water: the PDNAforeword (a statement); IDMC (2023) citing UNOSATsatellite data (peak extent). The two figures weremeasured differently. Map: Natural Earth.
  • The government's needs assessment reports Pakistan's wettest August since 1961. In Sindh and Balochistan, rainfall was six and seven times the average monthly totals.
  • The same assessment cites attribution research: the heaviest five-day rainfall in these provinces was about 75% more intense than it would have been without 1.2 °C of warming.
  • Vulnerability turned extreme rain into disaster: millions lived and farmed on the Indus plains, many in homes that could not withstand floodwater.
  • Note: the attribution study itself (World Weather Attribution) reports 7 and 8 times the usual monthly totals.
Mission 5

Pakistan's floods: scale and consequences

  • Extreme monsoon floods affected about 33 million people, one in seven Pakistanis. Nearly 8 million were displaced and more than 1,700 died.
  • IDMC recorded 8.2 million displacements, "the world's largest disaster displacement event in the last ten years". More than 1 million people were still displaced in December 2022.
  • About 780,000 houses were destroyed (preliminary assessment, October 2022). Damage came to US$14.9 billion and economic losses to US$15.2 billion. Total recovery needs are estimated at US$16.3 billion.
  • The government's assessment says "one-third of the country has been under water". IDMC, citing UNOSAT satellite data, gives about 85,000 km² at the peak: about 10% of the country. Check how each figure was measured.
Quick check
?Which statement correctly contrasts the two movements?
Mission 5

Slow-onset environmental push

  • Drought, sea-level rise and salty groundwater push people gradually, and often look like economic migration.
  • The World Bank projects up to 216 million internal climate migrants by 2050 across six world regions in its pessimistic scenario, including up to 19.9 million in Bangladesh.
  • These are model projections, not counts. Say so when you use them.
Mission 5

Categorising consequences (skills)

Categorising forced-migration consequencesThe Rohingya movementPeoplePlacesOriginNearly 725,000had fled bymid-August 2018;most were de factostatelessAt least 392villages (40% ofsettlements innorthern Rakhine)partly or totallydestroyedDestinationAid-dependentcamps:Kutupalong–Balukhalisheltered over600,000 (2021);unskilled wagesdepressedAbout 4,818 acresof forest reservedestroyed in Cox'sBazarPakistan's 2022 floodsPeoplePlacesOriginAbout 33 millionaffected; nearly 8million displaced;more than 1,700diedAbout 780,000houses destroyed;damage US$14.9billionDestinationMore than 1million stilldisplaced inDecember 2022(inside Pakistan:IDPs)Not covered in thislessonSources: UN fact-finding mission (2018); Government ofBangladesh and UNHCR; UNHCR (2021); UNDPBangladesh (2018); Pakistan PDNA (2022); IDMC (2023).
  • Group consequences by place (origin, destination), people (migrants, host communities) and type (social, economic, environmental, political).
  • A table or flow diagram makes patterns easy to see. The guide asks how impacts "can be categorized and represented graphically".
Mission check

?Why did nearly 725,000 Rohingya flee to Bangladesh within a year, and what happened where they arrived?
Mission 6

Mission 6: From 1980 China limited most couples to one child. By 2021 it allowed three. Why the U-turn, and can governments change how many children people have?

Make a guess: From 1980 China limited most couples to one child. By 2021 it allowed three. Why the U-turn, and can governments change how many children people have?

Mission 6

Global trends in family size

Fertility by region, 1990 and 2024Children per woman (total fertility rate)19902024Sub-Saharan Africa6.304.26Central andSouthern Asia4.332.24Latin America andthe Caribbean3.241.80Europe andNorthern America1.811.47Eastern andSouth-Eastern Asia2.621.34World3.312.252.1: replacement (low mortality)0246Source: UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024.Regions are UN SDG regions; 2024 values aremedium-variant projections.
  • World fertility fell from 3.31 children per woman in 1990 to 2.25 in 2024.
  • The world's 8.2 billion people are projected to peak at about 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s.
  • Fertility has fallen in every region since 1990. Sub-Saharan Africa is still highest (4.26) and Eastern and South-Eastern Asia lowest (1.34).
  • Within regions the range is wider still: Niger 5.94, Japan 1.22; South Korea 0.75. (South Korea: 0.80 in 2025.)
Mission 6

Sex ratios

Sex ratio at birthBoys born per 100 girlsExpectedabout 105China, 2020 census111.3India, NFHS-5 survey (2019–21)about 107.6usual range 103–107050100boys per 100 girlsIndia's survey gives 929 girls per 1,000 boys: 1,000 ÷ 929× 100 = about 107.6 boys per 100 girls.Sources: UN DESA, Population Facts 2017/3; Our World inData (citing WHO); NBS China (2021); MoHFW India,NFHS-5 (2021).
  • Sex ratio at birth (SRB): boys born for every 100 girls. Around 105 is expected, and 103–107 is the usual range.
  • China's SRB was 111.3 in the 2020 census, down 6.8 since 2010.
  • India counts girls per 1,000 boys. Its 2019–21 survey found 929 girls per 1,000 boys for recent births, or about 108 boys per 100 girls. Its child sex ratio (aged 0–6) was 918 girls per 1,000 boys in 2011.
  • Skewed ratios result from sex-selective abortion, driven by son preference together with prenatal sex-determination technology and fewer births per family.
Quick check
?China's sex ratio at birth was 111.3 in 2020. What does this mean?
Mission 6

Ageing ("greying")

Japan's ageingShare of population aged 65 or over (%)UN WPP 2024, 1 July each yearStatistics Bureau of Japan, Sept 20260102030195019752000202529.6% (record, Sept 2026)Sources: UN DESA, WPP 2024 (the hollow dot is the2024 medium-variant projection); Statistics Bureau ofJapan, Statistics Topics No. 149 (Sept 2026). National andUN figures differ slightly.
  • Globally, people aged 65+ are projected to outnumber children under 18 by the late 2070s.
  • In September 2026, a record 29.6% of Japan's people were aged 65 or over: 36.2 million people. (National figures differ slightly from the UN figure on 3.11.)
  • Pressures: pensions, health care and long-term care, and fewer workers per older person.
  • Opportunities: older people's spending, work and volunteering.
Mission 6

Policies for an ageing society: Japan

  • Care: Long-Term Care Insurance, from April 2000, funds care services.
  • Working longer: from April 2021, employers must make efforts to secure work for people up to age 70.
  • Migration: the Specified Skilled Worker status, from April 2019, admits foreign workers to sectors short of labour.
  • These ease the costs of ageing but do not reverse it.
Quick check
?Which Japanese policy most directly increases the number of people in work?
Mission 6

From anti-natalist to pro-natalist: China

China's policy timelineLimits on most couplesthe government began limiting most couplesto one childanti-natalist1980Two children for all coupleslaw amended December 2015, in force 1January 20162016Three children allowedlaw amended in August 20212021Childcare subsidy3,600 yuan a year for each child under 32025China: births and deaths (million)Births, 20239.02Births, 20249.54Births, 20257.92Deaths, 202511.310510millionSources: China Daily (2015, 2021); CECC Annual Report2017; Xinhua (2025); NBS China communiqués andreleases, 2024–2026.
  • 1980: the government began limiting most couples to one child, an anti-natalist policy.
  • 2016: two children for all couples (law amended December 2015, in force 1 January 2016).
  • 2021: three children allowed; the law was amended in August 2021.
  • 2025: a national childcare subsidy of 3,600 yuan a year for each child under 3.
Mission 6

Why China changed course

  • China's working-age population (15–59) fell by 3.45 million in 2012, and officials describe it as shrinking year by year.
  • The 2020 census found a total fertility rate of 1.3, which officials called "a low level".
  • Since 2022 deaths have exceeded births. In 2025 there were 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths, and the population was 1,404.89 million.
Mission 6

Did the one-child policy cause the fall? (AO3)

China's fertility and policyChildren per woman (total fertility rate)0246819501975200020252.1 replacement19701980201620211970TFR 6.09; the 'later, longer, fewer' campaign(1970s)1980one-child policy (limits on most couples); TFR in1979: 2.752016two children for all couples2021three children allowedSource: UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024(2024 is a medium-variant projection). Policy dates: ChinaDaily; CECC.
  • China's fertility had already fallen from about 6.1 in 1970 to about 2.7 in 1979, before the 1980 policy.
  • The 1970s "later, longer, fewer" campaign (later marriage, longer gaps between births, fewer children) came first.
  • So the one-child policy added to a fall already under way, alongside economic change and education.
  • Exam move: "To what extent…" answers weigh a policy against the other causes, with dated evidence.
Mission 6

A pro-natalist policy: South Korea

South Korea's fertilityChildren per woman (total fertility rate)0.00.51.01.52.02.5201420172020202320252.1 replacement0.720.750.80Source: Statistics Korea (now Ministry of Data andStatistics), Birth statistics, 2014–2025.
  • Fertility: 0.72 in 2023, 0.75 in 2024, 0.80 in 2025. Still far below 2.1.
  • Measures: a child allowance extended to age 8, more publicly funded childcare, and longer parental leave: from February 2025, up to 18 months per parent if both take at least 3 months.
  • The OECD says these policies "have not succeeded in reversing the fertility trend". Spending on family benefits was 1.5% of GDP in 2020, against an OECD average of 2.3%.
Mission 6

Do pro-natalist policies work? (AO3)

  • UN review: child and family allowances have "a positive but weak effect"; short-term baby bonuses have "a limited effect, mostly affecting the timing of childbearing".
  • A research review finds parental leave and childcare have stronger effects than cash.
  • UNFPA warns that "simplistic or coercive" responses, such as baby bonuses or fertility targets, are "largely ineffective".
  • Its 2025 report links falling birth rates to the cost of living, gender norms and fear of the future.
Mission 6

Gender-equality policy

  • Gender equality: Rwanda's constitution requires women to hold at least 30% of posts in decision-making bodies. Women hold 63.8% of seats in its Chamber of Deputies.
  • Gender inequality, workplace norms and limits on reproductive choice shape family-size decisions.
  • India bans prenatal sex selection (PCPNDT Act, 1994). Its Beti Bachao Beti Padhao scheme (2015) targets the declining child sex ratio.
Mission 6

Anti-trafficking: the international framework

  • Anti-trafficking: the UN Palermo Protocol, adopted in 2000 and in force since 2003, commits countries to prevent, suppress and punish trafficking in persons, especially women and children. It has 185 parties.
  • A UNFPA workshop on skewed sex ratios lists expected consequences including "a marriage market squeeze, migration, trafficking": one link between population change and trafficking.
Mission 6

A national anti-trafficking policy: China

  • China's Action Plan against Human Trafficking (2021–2030) was issued by the State Council's General Office in April 2021:
    • marriage-registration staff must report signs of trafficking;
    • identity and border-crossing records are cross-checked for cross-border marriages;
    • designated hospitals give rescued victims medical care and counselling.
Quick check
?Which conclusion about pro-natalist policy is best supported by the evidence on these screens?
Mission check

?Why did China make its U-turn, and can governments change how many children people have?
Mission 7

Mission 7: Can a falling birth rate make a country richer?

Make a guess: Can a falling birth rate make a country richer?

Mission 7

The demographic dividend

  • UNFPA: "the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population's age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64) is larger than the non-working-age share of the population".
  • The key word is potential: the gain is not automatic.
Mission 7

How the dividend works

How the demographic dividend worksonly ifFalling fertilityLower dependency ratiomore workers per dependantMore savingand investmentMore women inpaid workMore spendingon each child'shealth andeducationEconomic growththe demographic dividend (potential)Conditionsenough jobs · healthy and educated workers · goodgovernanceSources: UNFPA; Bloom and Williamson (1998). Dashedarrows show potential, not certainty.
  • Fertility falls, so there are fewer children for each worker, and the dependency ratio falls.
  • With more workers per dependant there can be more saving and investment, more women in paid work, and more spending on each child's health and education.
  • Conditions: enough jobs, healthy and educated workers, and good governance. Without them, a large cohort of young adults may have no work.
  • The first dividend comes from more workers per dependant. A possible second dividend comes from the savings of a large cohort preparing for old age.
Mission 7

The evidence from East Asia

  • Bloom and Williamson estimated that population change added 1.4–1.9 percentage points a year to East Asia's growth in GDP per person between 1965 and 1990.
  • That is as much as one-third of the observed growth.
Quick check
?Why is the demographic dividend often called a "window"?
Mission 7

Case study: Bangladesh

Bangladesh's windowChildren per womanWorking-age share (%)Total fertility rate (left)Working-age share, 15–64 (right)02468405060701970198019902000201020202.1 replacementSource: UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024(2024 is a medium-variant projection). Working age = 15to 64.
  • Fertility fell from 6.82 children per woman (1972) to 2.14 (2024).
  • In 2024, 65.5% of people were of working age (15–64).
  • The age-dependency ratio was 93 in 1980. Calculate today's in a moment.
Mission 7

Why Bangladesh's fertility fell

  • Family planning went door to door: female field workers visited women at home.
  • From 1994 a nationwide stipend paid girls in rural areas to stay in secondary school (grades 6–10), on condition they stayed unmarried.
  • Alongside these, more women entered paid work, much of it in the garment industry.
Mission 7

Bangladesh: jobs for the larger workforce

  • Jobs for the larger workforce: the garment industry employed about 4.2 million people directly in 2020, roughly 60% of them women.
  • Female labour-force participation was 42.68% in 2022 (BBS Labour Force Survey).
Calculate
?In 2024, 28.0% of Bangladesh's people were aged 0–14, 6.5% were 65 or over, and 65.5% were 15–64. Calculate the dependency ratio.
Mission 7

How long will Bangladesh's window last?

  • The World Bank (2021), using UN projections from 2019, expected the window to close around 2033. The newer UN data (2024) has the working-age share still rising until about 2045: projections change.
  • UNFPA Bangladesh says the first dividend, driven by the rising working-age share, peaked in the early 2020s.
  • Risks: too few productive jobs for young people, and dependence on one export industry (garments made up 80.6% of exports in 2025–26).
Quick check
?A country's fertility falls quickly, but youth unemployment is high and schooling is poor. What is most likely?
Mission 7

Population and power between countries (synthesis)

India and China: the crossoverPopulation (millions, 1 July)IndiaChina04008001,2001,6001950197520002025mid-2022 (UN 2024 estimates)Source: UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024(estimates to 1 July 2023; the hollow dot is the 2024medium-variant projection). China excludes Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan.
  • Between countries: India overtook China as the most populous country around 2022–23. The UN projected April 2023 at the time; its 2024 estimates put the crossover in mid-2022. A large workforce and market can bring influence, but only with jobs and skills.
  • Workforces are shifting: Japan's population has been falling since 2008, while Niger's would double in about 21 years at today's natural increase.
Mission 7

Power within countries and between groups

  • Within countries: as the share of older people grows, so does the share of older voters, and with it their weight in decisions on pensions and health care.
  • Between groups: gender-equality policy can shift power. Rwanda's constitutional quota helped women win 63.8% of seats in its Chamber of Deputies.
  • Exam move: name the scale (local, national, international) and the groups whose power changes.
Quick check
?Which statement best shows how population change can shift the balance of power?
Mission check

?Can a falling birth rate make a country richer?
Exam technique

How Unit 1 is examined (Paper 2)

Paper 2 at a glancePaper 21 hour 15 minutes · 50 marksABCMarks: 30 · 10 · 10Section A30 marksA structured question on each core unitSection B10 marksAn infographic or visual stimulus, with structuredquestionsSection C10 marksOne extended answer, from a choice of twoShare of the final grade: 40% at SL · 25% at HLSource: IBO, Geography guide (first assessment 2019;updated 2022).
  • Paper 2: 1 hour 15 minutes, 50 marks. That is 40% of the grade at SL and 25% at HL.
  • Section A: a structured question on each core unit (30 marks in total). Section B: an infographic or visual stimulus with structured questions (10 marks). Section C: one 10-mark extended answer from a choice of two.
Exam technique

What the top band rewards (Section C, 9–10 marks)

  • Answers the question set: the topic and the command term.
  • Evidence (examples, statistics, details) is integrated and explained, not listed.
  • Evaluation weighs other perspectives and the strengths and weaknesses of evidence: the source, the definition and the date, as with Dhaka's three populations or Pakistan's "one-third".
  • The conclusion is balanced and matches the evidence. Diagrams are annotated and support the argument.
Recap

The big ideas

  • Physical factors set the limits of where people live; human factors decide within them (the Hu Line; the Nile).
  • Development is classified by income (World Bank) or more broadly (HDI). National averages hide core–periphery gaps, which drive internal migration.
  • Births, deaths and fertility drive the DTM; pyramids and dependency ratios show the results (Niger and Japan).
  • Megacity growth brings jobs, but its costs fall unevenly (Dhaka).
  • Forced migration: political (Rohingya, refugees) and environmental (Pakistan 2022, IDPs). Know stocks from flows.
  • Policies on ageing, fertility, gender and trafficking: judge what the evidence shows.
  • The demographic dividend is a time-limited potential (Bangladesh).

Final screen. Score, the mission list ticked, and "Next: test yourself in the Verify stage" (links to the Verify quiz).

🏆

Mini-lesson complete!

⭐⭐⭐

You've worked through Changing population for IB Diploma Geography SL and HL. 🎉

  1. Mission 1Why do more than 9 in 10 people in China live on one side of a single line?
  2. Mission 2Is China a rich country or a poor one?
  3. Mission 3At today's rate, Niger's population would double in about 21 years. Japan's is shrinking. Why?
  4. Mission 4Dhaka grew from 3 million people in 1980 to over 18 million by 2017. Who gains and who loses when a city grows that fast?
  5. Mission 5Within a year of August 2017, nearly 725,000 people had fled from Myanmar into Bangladesh. Why do so many people flee at once, and what happens where they arrive?
  6. Mission 6From 1980 China limited most couples to one child. By 2021 it allowed three. Why the U-turn, and can governments change how many children people have?
  7. Mission 7Can a falling birth rate make a country richer?

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Sources for this lesson are listed at the bottom of the page.

Sources (84)

The sources behind the facts and figures in this lesson.

  1. S1 IBO, Geography guide (first assessment 2019; updated 2022)
  2. S2 UN DESA, World Population Prospects 2024 (Demographic Indicators; Population by age), estimates to 1 July 2023; 2024 values are medium-variant projections
  3. S3 UN DESA, WPP 2024: Summary of results / Key messages
  4. S4 Chen M. et al. (2016), "The population distribution and trend of urbanization pattern on two sides of Hu Huanyong population line", Acta Geographica Sinica 71(2)
  5. S5 Qi W., Liu S., Liu Z. (2022), Hu Line pattern from the seventh census, Acta Geographica Sinica 77(12)
  6. S6 Arab Republic of Egypt, Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (UNFCCC, June 2022)
  7. S7 CAPMAS, Country report of Egypt, UN-GGIM 6th session (2016)
  8. S8 Kummu M. et al. (2016), "Over the hills and further away from coast", Environmental Research Letters 11:034010
  9. S9 World Bank, Country and lending groups, FY2027 (published 1 July 2026), and Data Blog, 1 July 2026
  10. S10 UNDP, Human Development Report 2025: Technical notes
  11. S11 NBS China, Seventh national census communiqué No. 7 (2021)
  12. S12 NBS China, Statistical communiqué on 2025 national economic and social development (28 Feb 2026) and press release (19 Jan 2026)
  13. S13 Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics, 2025 statistical communiqué, as reported by Jiemian News (secondary), for GDP per person; Beijing Municipal Government Information Office, press conference on Beijing's 2025 economy (21 Jan 2026), for disposable income
  14. S14 People's Government of Gansu Province, Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan (Gan Zheng Fa [2026] No. 22, 26 Mar 2026), for GDP per person; Caijing via ifeng.com (12 Feb 2026; secondary), for disposable income
  15. S15 UN DESA, World Urbanization Prospects 2018: Key facts and The world's cities in 2018
  16. S16 UN DESA, World Urbanization Prospects 2025: press release (18 Nov 2025) and Summary of Results (UN DESA/POP/2025/TR/NO. 12): Figure 1.2, Table 2.2 and annex table
  17. S17 World Bank, press release "Modern Dhaka key to Bangladesh's upper-middle-income country vision" (19 Jul 2017)
  18. S18 Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Population and Housing Census 2022, National Report Vol. I
  19. S19 ILO (2020), Workers' welfare in the Bangladesh RMG industry
  20. S20 BGMEA, Comparative statement on export of RMG and total export (Export Promotion Bureau data), FY2025–26
  21. S21 ILO (2014), "Rana Plaza: Never again"; ILO (2021), "Rana Plaza: More needs to be done to ensure workplace safety"
  22. S22 Islam M.S. et al. (2010), "Changes in wetlands in Dhaka City", Journal of Life and Earth Science 5:37–42
  23. S23 IOM Bangladesh (2023), Study on rural–urban climate migration in Bangladesh (cites the 2022 census)
  24. S24 UNHCR, Global Trends: Forced displacement in 2025 (June 2026)
  25. S25 IDMC, Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026
  26. S26 UN, Convention relating to the Status of Refugees (1951), Art. 1A(2); Protocol (1967)
  27. S27 UN OCHA, Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement (1998)
  28. S28 UN Human Rights Council, Report of the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on Myanmar, A/HRC/39/64 (2018)
  29. S29 Government of Bangladesh and UNHCR, Rohingya refugee population dashboard (30 Sep 2026)
  30. S30 UNHCR briefing note via ReliefWeb (30 Mar 2021)
  31. S31 UNDP Bangladesh (2018), Impacts of the Rohingya refugee influx on host communities
  32. S32 Government of Pakistan et al. (2022), Pakistan Floods 2022: Post-Disaster Needs Assessment
  33. S33 IDMC, Global Report on Internal Displacement 2023, Pakistan spotlight, p. 69 (citing UNOSAT)
  34. S34 World Bank (2021), Groundswell Part 2 (overview)
  35. S35 UN DESA, Population Facts 2017/3
  36. S36 Our World in Data, "Sex ratio at birth" (citing WHO's expected ratio)
  37. S37 NBS China, Main data of the seventh national population census (2021)
  38. S38 Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India, Child sex ratio (Census 2011)
  39. S39 Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, India, NFHS-5 fact sheet (PIB, 17 Dec 2021)
  40. S40 Statistics Bureau of Japan, Statistics Topics No. 149 (20 Sep 2026)
  41. S41 MHLW, Vital statistics 2025 (final) (30 Sep 2026)
  42. S42 Statistics Bureau of Japan, Statistics Topics No. 119 (2019)
  43. S43 MHLW, Long-term care insurance system of Japan (2016) and annual report note (2023)
  44. S44 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, Specified Skilled Worker page; OECD (2024) WP 1792
  45. S45 MHLW (2023), Current state of employment measures for the elderly
  46. S46 China Daily (28 Dec 2015), "Chinese bid farewell to one-child policy with law amended"
  47. S47 US Congressional-Executive Commission on China, Annual Report 2017
  48. S48 China Daily (20 Aug 2021), "Revised law allowing three-child families passed"
  49. S49 Statistics Korea (now Ministry of Data and Statistics), Birth statistics in 2024 (27 Aug 2025)
  50. S50 OECD (2024), Korea's unborn future, Economics Department WP 1824 (17 Oct 2024)
  51. S51 UN DESA (2025), World Fertility 2024, Chapter 2 (p. 25)
  52. S52 Constitution of the Republic of Rwanda (2003, revised 2015), Art. 10(4)
  53. S53 Inter-Parliamentary Union, Parline: Rwanda, Chamber of Deputies
  54. S54 UN Treaty Collection, Palermo Protocol (XVIII-12-a), status
  55. S55 UNFPA, "Demographic dividend"
  56. S56 Bloom D. and Williamson J. (1998), "Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia", World Bank Economic Review 12(3)
  57. S57 World Bank (2021), Bangladesh Systematic Country Diagnostic update
  58. S58 UNFPA Bangladesh, "Demographic dividend"
  59. S59 BBS Labour Force Survey 2022, as reported by The Business Standard (secondary)
  60. S60 UN DESA press release (24 Apr 2023) and Policy Brief 153
  61. S61 UNFPA press release on State of World Population 2025 (10 Jun 2025)
  62. S62 Bergsvik J., Fauske A., Hart R. (2021), "Can Policies Stall the Fertility Fall? A Systematic Review of the (Quasi-) Experimental Literature", Population and Development Review 47(4): 913–964; authors' summary on N-IUSSP (2022)
  63. S63 Chao F. et al. (2019), "Systematic assessment of the sex ratio at birth for all countries and estimation of national imbalances and regional reference levels", PNAS 116(19): 9303–9311
  64. S64 NBS China, seventh census press conference Q&A (11 May 2021); SCIO English transcript
  65. S65 NBS China, Statistical communiqué on 2012 national economic and social development (2013)
  66. S66 Xinhua via gov.cn (28 Jul 2025), "China to offer nationwide childcare subsidies"
  67. S67 Babiarz K. et al., "The Limits (and Human Costs) of Population Policy", NBER Working Paper 25130
  68. S68 Ministry of Employment and Labor, Korea, press release (20 Nov 2024) on parental leave, effective 23 Feb 2025
  69. S69 Ministry of Data and Statistics, Korea, Birth statistics in 2025 (26 Aug 2026)
  70. S70 JICA, "Bangladesh and JICA" (MRT Line 6 partly opened December 2022)
  71. S71 Bangladesh Public-Private Partnership Authority, BSCIC Tannery Industrial Estate project page
  72. S72 UN Treaty Collection, Convention relating to the Status of Refugees, status (Bangladesh not a party); UNHCR UPR submission (2009)
  73. S73 Government of Bangladesh and UN, 2023 Joint Response Plan: Rohingya Humanitarian Crisis
  74. S74 Liu J. et al. (2020), "Study on the spatial differentiation of the populations on both sides of the 'Qinling-Huaihe Line' in China", Sustainability 12(11): 4545
  75. S75 State Council Information Office, China Keywords: Western Development (2022)
  76. S76 Government of India, PC&PNDT (Prohibition of Sex Selection) Act, 1994
  77. S77 Ministry of Women and Child Development via PIB (2022), Explainer: Beti Bachao Beti Padhao
  78. S78 UNFPA (2012), Report of the International Workshop on Skewed Sex Ratios at Birth (Ha Noi, 2011)
  79. S79 World Bank blog, "Human Capital: How Bangladesh effectively invested in its people by focusing on women's health"
  80. S80 World Bank, "The Female Stipend Program in Bangladesh" (Gender Impact Evaluation Database)
  81. S81 Education Bureau, Hong Kong SAR, National Geography Info Sheet 14: Precipitation
  82. S82 General Office of the State Council, PRC, China's Action Plan against Human Trafficking (2021–2030) (Guo Ban Fa [2021] No. 13; issued 9 Apr 2021), via China Law Translate
  83. S83 World Bank, "Toward Great Dhaka" speech (19 Jul 2017); press release (5 Jul 2018)
  84. S84 World Weather Attribution (14 Sep 2022), "Climate change likely increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan"