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Eduqas GCSE Maths · Probability
Mini-Lesson

Probability

This mini-lesson covers the Probability strand of Eduqas GCSE Maths: the probability scale, sample space, P(not A), mutually exclusive and independent events, tree diagrams, Venn diagrams and relative frequency (experimental probability).

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 impossible even chance certain
Every probability sits on the scale from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain).

Work through each screen, answer the questions as you go (most are calculations) and collect ⭐ stars. Press Start when you're ready.

Probability scale

The probability scale & P(not A)

Every probability is a number from 0 to 1. For equally likely outcomes:

P(event) = successful outcomes ÷ total outcomes0 = impossible  ·  ½ = even chance  ·  1 = certain

The probabilities of all possible outcomes add to 1. So the chance an event does not happen is:

P(not A) = 1 − P(A)if P(rain) = 0.3 then P(no rain) = 1 − 0.3 = 0.7
Worked example

A fair spinner has 8 equal sections, 3 shaded red. Find P(not red).

P(red) = 3 ÷ 8 = 0.375

P(not red) = 1 − 0.375 = 0.625

Common slip: probabilities are never bigger than 1 and never negative. An answer like 1.4 or −0.2 means a mistake.

Calculate

Your turn — a fair die

1A fair six-sided die is rolled once. Find P(even number) as a decimal.
Hint: even outcomes are {2, 4, 6} — that's 3 out of 6, so 3 ÷ 6 = 0.5.
Sample space

Sample space diagrams

A sample space lists every possible outcome. Once you can see them all, probabilities are just counting. Here is the sample space for rolling two fair dice and adding the scores:

+ 123456 123456 234567 345678 456789 5678910 67891011 789101112
There are 6 × 6 = 36 equally likely outcomes. A total of 7 appears 6 times, so P(total 7) = 6/36 = 1/6.

Watch out: with two dice there are 36 outcomes, not 12 or 11. Totals from 2 to 12 are not equally likely — count them from the grid.

Calculate

Your turn — two coins

2Two fair coins are flipped. Find P(two heads) as a decimal.
(The sample space is HH, HT, TH, TT.)
Hint: only HH counts — that's 1 out of 4 outcomes, so 1 ÷ 4 = 0.25.
Single events

Picking from a bag

For a single pick, count the favourable items over the total items. A bag holds 3 red and 2 blue counters (5 in total):

P(red) = 3 ÷ 5 = 0.6P(blue) = 2 ÷ 5 = 0.4  ·  0.6 + 0.4 = 1 ✓
Worked example

A bag has 4 green and 6 yellow sweets. Find P(green).

Total = 4 + 6 = 10

P(green) = 4 ÷ 10 = 0.4

Always find the total first. The denominator is every item in the bag, not just the ones you don't want.

Calculate

Your turn — a bag of counters

3A bag contains 3 red and 2 blue counters. One counter is taken at random. Find P(red) as a decimal.
Hint: 3 red out of 5 total, so 3 ÷ 5 = 0.6.
Quick check

Reading the scale

?What is the probability of an impossible event?
Mutually exclusive events

Mutually exclusive events

Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot both happen at the same time (like rolling a 3 and rolling a 5 on one die). For mutually exclusive events you add the probabilities:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)only valid when A and B can't happen together
Worked example

A spinner: P(red) = 0.2, P(green) = 0.5. Find P(red or green).

They can't both come up, so add:

0.2 + 0.5 = 0.7

Careful: only add when events can't overlap. "King" and "Heart" from a deck are not mutually exclusive — the King of Hearts is both — so you can't simply add those.

Quick check

Adding mutually exclusive events

?A bag has red, green and yellow balls. P(red) = 0.2 and P(green) = 0.5. Find P(red or green).
Calculate

Your turn — P(not A)

4The probability that a bus is late is P(late) = 0.35. Find P(not late) as a decimal.
Hint: P(not late) = 1 − 0.35 = 0.65.
Independent events & tree diagrams

Independent events & tree diagrams

Two events are independent if one has no effect on the other (like two separate coin flips). For independent events you multiply:

P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)P(two heads) = ½ × ½ = ¼

A tree diagram shows the branches. Multiply along the branches for "and", then add across the ends for "or". Here two counters are drawn with replacement from the 3-red, 2-blue bag (P(red) = 0.6, P(blue) = 0.4):

0.6 0.4 Red Blue 0.60.4 0.60.4 R,R → 0.36 R,B → 0.24 B,R → 0.24 B,B → 0.16
P(both red) = 0.6 × 0.6 = 0.36. The four end-probabilities add to 1.

Multiply, don't add: for "A and B" you multiply along branches. Adding 0.6 + 0.6 = 1.2 is impossible for a probability — a clear warning sign.

Quick check

Multiplying independent events

?Two fair dice are rolled. What is P(both show a 6)?
Calculate

Your turn — tree diagram

5Using the tree diagram bag (P(red) = 0.6, drawn with replacement), find P(red then red) as a decimal.
Hint: multiply along the branches: 0.6 × 0.6 = 0.36.
Match game

Event ⇄ probability

Tap an event on the left, then its matching probability on the right.

Note: these games test recall of facts, formulae and methods — not full written working. In the exam you must always show your working.

Venn diagrams

Venn diagrams

A Venn diagram sorts things into sets. The overlap is the items in both sets; add up the region you need, then divide by the total. Here 30 students said whether they study French (F) or Spanish (S):

ℰ = 30 French Spanish 11 7 5 7 French only both Spanish only neither
11 + 7 + 5 + 7 = 30. P(studies French) = (11 + 7) ÷ 30 = 18/30 = 3/5.

Don't double-count the middle: the 7 in the overlap study both. "French only" is 11, but "studies French" includes the overlap too, so it's 11 + 7 = 18.

Quick check

Which pair can overlap?

?Drawing one card from a deck, which pair of events is NOT mutually exclusive (they can happen together)?
Relative frequency

Relative frequency (experimental probability)

When outcomes are not equally likely (a biased die, a drawing pin), you estimate probability from an experiment:

relative frequency = frequency ÷ total trialsthe more trials you do, the closer it gets to the true probability
Worked example

A drawing pin lands "point up" 45 times in 60 drops. Estimate P(point up).

relative frequency = 45 ÷ 60 = 0.75

Estimated frequency: to predict how many times an event happens in N trials, multiply: expected = P × N. E.g. 0.75 × 200 = 150 times.

Calculate

Your turn — relative frequency

6A biased spinner is spun 40 times and lands on "6" a total of 12 times. Estimate P(6) as a decimal.
Hint: relative frequency = 12 ÷ 40 = 0.3.
Sort it

Mutually exclusive or not?

Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot both happen at once. Tap a pair of events, then tap the box it belongs in.

🚫 Mutually exclusive

🔀 NOT mutually exclusive

Recap

The whole Probability strand

Scale: probabilities run 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain); P(A) = favourable ÷ total.

P(not A): = 1 − P(A); all outcomes add to 1.

Sample space: list every outcome, then count (two dice → 36 outcomes).

Mutually exclusive: can't both happen → P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B).

Independent: no effect on each other → P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B).

Tree diagrams: multiply along branches, add across ends.

Venn diagrams: the overlap = both sets; don't double-count the middle.

Relative frequency: = frequency ÷ trials — experimental estimate of probability.

You've covered every sub-topic in the Eduqas GCSE Maths Probability strand. Press Finish to see your score.

🏆

Mini-lesson complete!

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You've worked through the Probability strand for Eduqas GCSE Maths. 🎉

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Next: test yourself in the Evaluate stage Confidence Quiz, then lock it in with Verify.

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