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AQA A-level Mathematics (7357) · Statistical distributions
Mini-Lesson

Statistical distributions

This mini-lesson covers AQA section N: the binomial distribution B(n, p) — its conditions, probabilities, mean and variance — and the Normal distribution N(μ, σ²)standardising with z, the inverse normal, points of inflection, and the link between the two. It finishes with choosing an appropriate model.

μ μ − σ μ + σ symmetrical about μ points of inflection total area = 1
N(μ, σ²) — bell shaped, symmetric about μ, with points of inflection at μ ± σ. About 95% of the data lies within 2σ of μ.

Work through each screen, answer the questions as you go (some are wordy, some are calculations) and collect ⭐ stars. AQA expects you to use your calculator's distribution functions, and to say why a model does or does not fit. Press Start when you're ready.

Section N1 · binomial

The binomial distribution B(n, p)

X ~ B(n, p) counts the number of successes in n trials. It needs all four conditions:

  • a fixed number of trials, n
  • each trial has only two outcomes (success / failure)
  • the trials are independent
  • the probability of success, p, is constant
P(X = r) = nCr pr (1 − p)n − rE(X) = np  ·  Var(X) = np(1 − p)
Worked example

X ~ B(10, 0.3). Find P(X = 4).

P(X = 4) = 10C4 × 0.34 × 0.76 = 210 × 0.0081 × 0.117649

= 0.200 (3 s.f.)

Cumulative: your calculator gives P(X ≤ r) directly. Then P(X ≥ r) = 1 − P(X ≤ r − 1). Getting that "−1" right is where most marks are lost.

Calculate

Binomial: exactly r

1X ~ B(10, 0.3). Find P(X = 4) to 3 decimal places.
Hint: P(X = 4) = ¹⁰C₄ × 0.3⁴ × 0.7⁶ = 210 × 0.0081 × 0.117649.
Calculate

Binomial: cumulative

2X ~ B(20, 0.25). Find P(X ≤ 3) to 3 decimal places.
Hint: Use the cumulative binomial: add P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) + P(X=3), or use your calculator's Bcd function.
Quick check

Is it binomial?

?Which of these is NOT well modelled by a binomial distribution?
Quick check

Mean and variance

?X ~ B(40, 0.15). What are the mean and variance of X?
Section N2 · normal

The Normal distribution N(μ, σ²)

X ~ N(μ, σ²) is a continuous model: bell shaped, symmetric about the mean μ, with points of inflection at μ ± σ. Total area = 1, and mean = median = mode.

Z = (X − μ) ÷ σ ~ N(0, 1)standardising: how many standard deviations is x above the mean?
Worked example — standardising

X ~ N(50, 8²). Find P(X < 62).

z = (62 − 50) ÷ 8 = 12 ÷ 8 = 1.5

P(Z < 1.5) = Φ(1.5) = 0.933 (3 s.f.)

Worked example — inverse normal

X ~ N(100, 15²). Find x such that P(X < x) = 0.90.

Inverse normal: z = 1.2816. So x = μ + zσ = 100 + 15 × 1.2816

x = 119.2 (1 d.p.)

Useful landmarks: about 68% of the distribution lies within 1σ of μ, about 95% within 2σ, and about 99.7% within 3σ. (Exactly 95% lies within 1.96σ.)

Calculate

Normal probability

3X ~ N(50, ). Find P(X < 62) to 3 decimal places.
Hint: Standardise: z = (62 − 50) ÷ 8 = 1.5. Then find Φ(1.5).
Calculate

Standardising

4X ~ N(70, ). Calculate the z-value of x = 78.
Hint: z = (x − μ) ÷ σ = (78 − 70) ÷ 5.
Calculate

Inverse normal

5X ~ N(100, 15²). Find the value of x for which P(X < x) = 0.90, to 1 decimal place.
Hint: Inverse normal gives z = 1.2816. Then x = μ + zσ = 100 + 15 × 1.2816.
Sort it

Choose the model

Tap a situation, then tap the model that fits it best.

🎯 Binomial

🔔 Normal

❌ Neither

Section N2–N3 · linking

Linking the binomial to the Normal

Draw the bars of B(n, p) for a large n with p not too close to 0 or 1 and the histogram looks like a bell. That is the link AQA asks for between the binomial and the Normal.

If X ~ B(n, p) with n large, then X ≈ N(np, np(1 − p))same mean, same variance · use a continuity correction: P(X ≤ 45) → P(Y < 45.5)
Worked example

X ~ B(80, 0.5). Then np = 80 × 0.5 = 40 and np(1 − p) = 80 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 20.

So X can be approximated by N(40, 20), i.e. σ = √20 ≈ 4.47.

Choosing a model (N3): say why. Binomial fails when trials are dependent or p changes. Normal fails when the data are skewed, or the quantity is discrete and n is small, or values cannot be negative but μ is close to 0.

Quick check

The 95% rule

?Approximately what percentage of a Normal distribution lies within 2 standard deviations of the mean?
Match it

Formula recall

Tap a formula on the left, then what it gives you on the right.

Formula
Meaning
Quick check

Normal approximation

?X ~ B(80, 0.5) is to be approximated by a Normal distribution. Which one?
Section N1 · discrete distributions

Discrete probability distributions

A discrete random variable X takes a listed set of values, each with a probability. The whole distribution is usually given as a table — and the probabilities must sum to 1.

Σ P(X = x) = 1this is what lets you find a missing probability
Worked example

X has P(X = 1) = 0.2, P(X = 2) = 0.3, P(X = 3) = k, P(X = 4) = 0.1.

Sum to 1: 0.2 + 0.3 + k + 0.1 = 1 → k = 1 − 0.6 = 0.4

Then, for example, P(X ≥ 3) = 0.4 + 0.1 = 0.5.

AQA note: calculating the mean and variance of a general discrete random variable is excluded from A-level Maths — but you do need E(X) = np and Var(X) = np(1 − p) for the binomial.

Calculate

Missing probability

6A discrete random variable X has P(X=1) = 0.2, P(X=2) = 0.3, P(X=3) = k and P(X=4) = 0.1. Find k.
Hint: All the probabilities must add to 1: k = 1 − (0.2 + 0.3 + 0.1).
Quick check

When the Normal model fails

?The masses of some components have mean 2 g and standard deviation 3 g, and mass cannot be negative. Why is N(2, 3²) a poor model?
Recap

The big ideas to know

Binomial B(n, p): fixed n · two outcomes · independent trials · constant p

P(X = r) = ⁿCᵣ pʳ (1 − p)ⁿ⁻ʳ · E(X) = np · Var(X) = np(1 − p) · P(X ≥ r) = 1 − P(X ≤ r − 1)

Normal N(μ, σ²): symmetric about μ, points of inflection at μ ± σ, area = 1

Standardise: z = (x − μ) ÷ σ · Inverse normal: x = μ + zσ

68 / 95 / 99.7 within 1σ / 2σ / 3σ

Link: B(n, p) ≈ N(np, np(1 − p)) for large n · choose a model and justify it

That is the whole of section N — Statistical distributions for AQA A-level Mathematics (7357). Press Finish to see your score.

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